Which MLB Breakouts Are Real?

Miles Kee
Jun 27
3 min read

Each baseball season begins with a wave of unexpected performances. In a 162-game sport, early hot streaks and statistical quirks often lead to one big question from coaches, scouts, front offices, and fans alike:

Is this real?

Distinguishing signal from noise in early-season stats is more than a curiosity, it is critical to decision-making. A true breakout can change a season, a roster, or even a career. A false start? That leads to regret, roster churn, or misplaced confidence.

Take Brent Booker’s 2023 season. After a miserable 14 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) in 2022, he posted a 132 wRC+ through June 2023, ended the season at 126, and is now viewed as a bona fide offensive force.

Contrast that with Jarred Kelenic’s 2023 season. He surged to a 126 wRC+ through June but cratered to 80 wRC+ the rest of the way - proof that not all hot starts have staying power.

At CSA, we use Relevance-Based Prediction (RBP) to cut through the noise and assess whether breakouts are sustainable. Below, we examine four intriguing cases from the 2025 MLB season, two hitters and two pitchers, and offer insight into what’s real, and what’s likely to be noise.

Quick Stat Guide

wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): A comprehensive hitting stat. 100 = league average; 110 = 10% better than average; 90 = 10% below.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): A pitching stat similar to ERA but isolates the pitcher’s true impact by removing defensive variability. Stabilizes earlier than ERA.

🔥Breakout Bats

Pete Crow-Armstrong's Performance Prediction

Status: Real, with some regression expected

Long heralded for his elite defense, Crow-Armstrong was always a breakout bat away from being a star. In 2025, he has delivered a 137 wRC+ with 19 home runs through June 18. He’s hitting the ball harder, elevating more, and converting contact into power.

RBP sees this performance as mostly sustainable. His transformation is supported by meaningful changes in batted-ball data. Some regression is expected, but Crow-Armstrong is no longer just a glove; he’s a threat at the plate too.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's Most Relevant Players (by Prediction Weight)

Status: Likely regression

After years of glove-first utility work, McKinstry’s 122 wRC+ has shocked even the most optimistic Tigers fans. The key - more line drives, more pulled contact.

But RBP sees warning signs:

A .349 BABIP (well above the ~.300 average)
Modest exit velocities and ground-ball tendencies
No underlying indicators of lasting change

The verdict: A useful stretch, but likely not sustainable without a true shift in underlying power metrics.

Zach McKinstry's Most Relevant Players (by Prediction Weight)

⚾ Breakout Arms

Status: Real, and trending up

Warren’s rocky rookie season (4.93 FIP) masked his upside. In 2025, his 3.23 FIP shows real progress, driven by:

Fewer home runs
More ground balls
Lower hard-hit rates

RBP validates this improvement, projecting Warren in the 82nd percentile of FIP going forward. This isn’t just a lucky start. He’s the pitcher scouts were excited about.

Will Warren's Most Relevant Players (by Prediction Weight)

Status: Mirage

The 2021 Cy Young winner has been a riddle ever since. In 2025, he boasts a 2.98 FIP, allowing nearly half as many home runs and fewer walks. So, what’s not to love?

RBP isn’t buying it.

Despite the surface numbers, Ray is allowing a high hard-hit rate, and his strikeout-to-walk percentages have deteriorated. Without elite whiffs or elite contact management, his current performance is likely unsustainable.

Robbie Ray's Most Relevant Players (by Prediction Weight)

🧢Final Thoughts

Hot starts are easy to spot. Staying power is harder to measure.

Relevance-Based Prediction helps us separate genuine breakouts from statistical smoke. And in a game of inches, that edge is everything.