A New Era of NBA Free Agency

Jimmy Butler | Takeshipinedo17 | Flickr

In recent years, NBA free agency has seen far fewer star-studded classes than in summers of past. Gone are the days of 2019 when Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Jimmy Butler changed the landscape of the NBA with their free agency moves. Recent rule changes encourage teams to extend their own players before they hit the open market. And a new CBA with harsher salary cap penalties has reduced both the pool of available free agents and the money teams have to offer them. However, it may be premature to proclaim the death of free agency. Many teams have made under-the-radar moves to reinforce depth and put themselves in a position to make deep playoff runs.

The table below highlights recent examples of unheralded moves which helped teams play into May and June.

Using CSA’s RBP technology, we identified some free agent moves in the 2025 offseason that could help teams elevate themselves into contention.

The numbers shown for each player are their predicted percentile ranks among all NBA players for the upcoming season. Higher percentile ranks imply better predicted performance than lower percentile ranks.

The Magic felt that they could have performed better in 2025, were it not for injuries to key players. In one of the earliest moves of the 2025 offseason, they pushed their trade chips in to acquire Desmond Bane from the Grizzlies. Two weeks later, the Magic signed Tyus Jones, which has largely gone under the radar in the wake of the Bane move. Jones addresses a huge hole at guard for the Magic. Jalen Suggs played out of position at point guard for much of the year, and Cory Joseph was largely ineffective when filling in for Suggs after an injury ended Suggs’ season. Magic guards ranked 24th in the NBA in assist rate. Therefore, CSA’s prediction that Jones’ assists will rank near the 90th percentile should be a welcome improvement. Moreover, with three consecutive seasons over 10 PPG and a 65th percentile prediction for next year, Jones will also provide some depth scoring for the top-heavy Magic.

When discussing the best shooters in the NBA, Luke Kennard is often forgotten, despite shooting over 40% from three in his career on high volume. In an action-packed offseason for the Hawks, Kennard may prove to be the best fit for the team next year. The Hawks ranked 18th in 3-point percentage and 15th in 3-point attempts in 2025, so Kennard’s accuracy and volume from deep will have an immediate impact. Kennard’s passing, with an assist projection in the 73rd percentile, is one of his most underrated skills, especially considering he was in a bench role last year and likely will be going forward. Kennard’s defense and rebounding limit his ceiling, but the Hawks have impact defenders and length all over the court to make up for this liability, thereby allowing Kennard to do what he does best. With Trae Young, the Hawks were at their best when they had Lou Williams coming off the bench to create instant offense in the non-Young minutes. CSA is predicting that Kennard will fill that role going forward.

Luke Kornet looks to be the perfect backup center to Victor Wembanyama. Between Kornet and Wembanyama, the Spurs will have an elite shot blocker and rebounder on the court most times to anchor their defense. Kornet does not need the ball in his hands to play to his strengths, considering his defensive impact (predicted 77th percentile) and offensive rebounding (predicted 94th percentile). With a team featuring three high-usage guards as well as Wembanyama, Kornet fits in perfectly as a low-usage complementary piece. After Wembanyama was declared out for the remainder of the season in February, the Spurs were a bottom five team in per-possession defense and rebounding. Kornet’s strengths play perfectly to the Spurs’ weaknesses while not taking away from the development of their young core.

Jordan Clarkson, a surprise buyout by the Jazz, quickly signed with the Knicks for the veteran’s minimum salary after clearing waivers. Clarkson, despite his defensive flaws, will provide ball-handling and shot creation depth to a Knicks roster that desperately needs a reliable perimeter creator during non-Jalen Brunson minutes. The Knicks bench ranked dead last in the NBA in minutes played and offensive rating, 26^th in true shooting percentage, and 18^th in assist rate during the 2024-25 season. The former 6^th man of the year, Clarkson, will impact these areas immediately, with his predicted 82^nd percentile scoring and 81^st percentile assisting. His overall offensive impact is predicted to be in the 83^rd percentile. While his defense leaves quite a bit to be desired (27^th percentile), Clarkson fills many holes for a Knicks team looking to improve upon their first conference finals appearance in 25 years.