Old Faces in New Places

Which college basketball transfers are primed for breakouts and bounce backs?

Wikimedia Commons | Photographer Jacob Snow | Icon Sportswire

In the current landscape of college basketball, every summer brings significant roster turnover for almost every team. With so many players transferring, most rosters have at least three or four new faces for the 2025-26 season. Each year there are transfers that live up to the hype and some deep sleepers that exceed expectations. Players like Alijah Martin (#129 transfer in 2024), Keshon Gilbert (#100 transfer in 2023), and Cam Spencer (#114 transfer in 2023) have slipped in transfer rankings and then emerged in a major way for top-tier teams. Using CSA’s Relevance-Based Prediction, we will discuss some of the potential breakout and bounce-back stars of this year’s transfer class. For each player, we will look at the players who are most relevant to their predictions, and how those players were able to improve the following year.

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Blake Harper took the MEAC by storm last year, averaging 19.5 points, 3.4 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game. He won the conference Rookie of the Year Award and also became the first freshman to win the MEAC Player of the Year Award. However, advanced metrics were a little lower for Harper than his counting stats would suggest, as he posted a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of -0.9. Harper decided to capitalize on his standout freshman season and transferred to Creighton over the summer, with three years of eligibility still remaining. CSA predicts that Harper will break out at the Big East level this season, increasing his BPM by nearly four points to 2.8.

For Harper, we are focusing on players who were established at the mid-major and low-major levels who transferred to high-major schools with multiple years of eligibility. Unlike many other breakout transfers, these players were not brought in to be the main scorers on their team and instead were thought of as complementary pieces. All of them exceeded

expectations at their schools, and Sears and Newton were especially dominant in their 2^nd year after transferring. 

Because these players did not see large workloads, their breakouts were fueled by efficiency improvements and cutting down on mistakes. Taking more three-pointers and making more of them is a common theme among this group, as those shots are often more efficient than two-pointers. The other main improvements are cutting down on turnovers and fouls. These players were able to be more efficient by not making unnecessary mistakes on both sides of the ball. If Harper, an already proficient shooter, can take more of his shots from long range and clean up the freshman mistakes, we could see a star in the making in Omaha this year.

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After a tenuous start to college that included stints at Kansas and DePaul and a two-year medical hiatus from basketball, Grant-Foster arrived on the national stage in 2023-24. He averaged 20 PPG for a 30-5 Grand Canyon team that boasted a non-conference win over San Diego State and an NCAA Tournament win over St. Mary’s. However, 2024-25 was a disappointment for Grant-Foster and the Antelopes, as he averaged just 15 PPG and saw his efficiency decline. Moreover, Grand Canyon lost in the first round of March Madness. For his final year of eligibility, Grant-Foster decided to transfer to Gonzaga. RBP predicts that TGF’s BPM will increase from a disappointing 3.1 in 2025 to 5.5 in 2026.

In TGF’s case, we looked at players who had already established themselves with some level of national relevance who then transferred to a high-major school. These players had a lot in common among their improvements, and unlike in the prior section, these players all saw large expansions in their roles. Each player took more shots and often created more opportunities for their teammates. Even with a larger workload, they all cut down on turnovers as well.

Finally, efficiency jumps were important for all these players, as their 3-point and true shooting percentages all improved. For Grant-Foster to return to and improve on his 2024 form, he needs to be more assertive with the ball by creating more for his teammates, taking more shots, and being more efficient from the field.

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A former top 50 recruit, Wilcher didn’t play much of a role his freshman year at St. John’s. In his sophomore year, he was in a bench role for a Red Storm team that had their best season in decades. Wilcher saw his role diminished when St. John’s brought in transfers in 2025 and decided to transfer himself, ending up at Texas with new coach Sean Miller. CSA sees this move as a good fit and predicts Wilcher’s BPM to increase from 0.8 to 3.4 in 2025-26. 

When considering Wilcher, we examined players who weren’t a good fit at their original schools and decided to see if there were better opportunities elsewhere. These players then broke out as stars at their new schools. 

For all these players, their roles changed to a playstyle more suitable to them, as they shifted more toward the creating end of the spectrum rather than the receiving end. They also all improved their scoring, while not necessarily taking more shots, but by taking and making more threes and improving their true shooting percentage (TS%). These players also improved their playmaking, as they created and assisted on more shots for their teammates while still being able to cut down on turnovers. For Wilcher to see the most success at Texas, he needs to improve his outside shot and move to more of an on-ball role.

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The most established player on this list, Keyshawn Hall, has moved up the ranks each year in college. Starting as a freshman in a limited role at UNLV, he transferred to George Mason with the hope of more playing time. He had a lot of success at George Mason and parlayed that into an opportunity at Central Florida, where he was also effective. Now at Auburn, he hopes to make a deep March run in his senior year. If Auburn does make a deep run, Hall will be a central piece of it, as CSA predicts he will continue his ascension, going from a 4.1 BPM in 2024-25 to 5.9 in 2025-26.

The players highlighted below as comparable to Hall are all players that were central pieces on successful teams that decided to move to the upper echelons of college basketball and found both team and individual success. These players were all central pieces on their new teams as well, with all of them taking more 3-pointers and many taking more shots overall.

Three of the players improved their scoring on a per-possession basis, and Sean Pedulla and Otega Oweh were helped by increased efficiency. Dalton Knecht, LJ Cryer, and Oweh all shifted to more of a creator role as well, and were able to cut down on turnovers in the process. Pedulla and Cryer also became better on the defensive end by improving their steal percentage. Hall has a lot on his plate to match the output of these players, but based on RBP’s prediction, he has the potential to cement himself as an All-American level player in his final season.