Projecting the Next Generation of NFL Wide Receivers

Photo by Color Reflection

The NFL draft is unlike any other in professional sports. The seven-round event with 250+ selections made has seen teams change their fortune, nearly overnight, in a manner that isn’t possible in other sports. In the MLB draft, selections are often a minimum of two years away from even making their MLB debut, and in the NBA draft, the number of immediate and future contributors in each draft is much smaller than in the NFL draft. The Super Bowl-winning Seahawks drafted and developed 11 of their 22 starters, and homegrown cores like the Seahawks’ have stayed together and remained dominant for years.

Using CSA’s Relevance-Based Prediction, we projected the value of each wide receiver in the upcoming draft class’s first three seasons. The metric used was ProFootballReference’s Approximate Value. Factors used in the projections include college production, consensus big board ranking, and combine stats. While entirely stats-based models are less popular for the NFL draft due to the relative lack of consensus metrics and the importance of film-based analysis, the unique insights offered by RBP give us valuable input in projecting the future of these players. RBP is especially well equipped to handle NFL draft projections with missing combine data, or unranked recruits, as its elegant handling of missing data allows for the maximum amount of insight based on non-missing values.

Eyes on Indiana

The National Champion Hoosiers have two wide receivers with statistical profiles that RBP likes more than the consensus, Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt.

While Cooper Jr. is ranked higher in most places, RBP likes Sarratt’s statistical profile a bit more. Their big board ranking is an important variable for both players. Neither were big-time recruits coming out of high school, but that factor matters very little for Sarratt and Cooper. Although the two were teammates for two years, their team strength ratings have very different impacts on their projections. Sarratt played at James Madison under Curt Cignetti and followed him to Indiana when he became the coach, while Cooper Jr. played at Indiana for all four years of college. Since James Madison was a much better team than the pre-Cignetti Indiana teams, Sarratt’s team rating increases his projection much more than Cooper’s.

The part of each player’s production profile that contributes the most to their projection is their explosive reception rates. Sarratt’s touchdown rate is a much bigger part of his projection than Cooper’s, while Cooper’s first down rate is a much larger part of his projection.

When examining the most relevant players for each receiver, Sarratt also carries a bit more certainty than Cooper. While every prospect is volatile, Cooper’s most relevant players have a wider range of outcomes than Sarratt’s. Both prospects have high upside and share high-end outcome players of relevance like Ja’Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin, and CeeDee Lamb.

The Top Tier

There is a consensus top tier of wide receivers, all expected to go in the early first round. Makai Lemon from USC, Carnell Tate from Ohio State, and Jordyn Tyson from Arizona State have separated themselves from the pack atop draft boards.

The consensus rankings have Tate as the best prospect in the class, followed by Lemon in 2nd and Tyson in 3rd. Based on production, RBP has Lemon before Tate, with Tyson in 3rd among the top tier. RBP has the lowest conviction value for Tate, and the highest for Lemon. Tate’s prospect status is heavily film based, as his college production wasn’t quite to the level of Lemon’s, but Lemon didn’t have to share targets with players like Jeremiah Smith, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Egbuka. The ceiling of Tate’s relevant players is higher than Lemon’s or Tyson’s, but the floor is also lower. Five of Tate’s ten most relevant players had 3-year AV’s below 10, compared to just two of Lemon’s and Tyson’s most relevant players.

From RBP’s perspective, the biggest hole in Tyson’s profile is the weakness of his college teams. Lemon’s team strength isn’t a significant factor for him, while it is one of Tate’s most important factors. Tate’s projection is also buoyed by his age, as he is a bit younger than most receiver prospects. Lemon’s explosive play rate is also a contributor to his prediction, and his receiving yardage totals are the best of the three as well. While Tyson doesn’t have many variables that increase the conviction in his prediction, his target share is one of the leading contributors to his prediction.